It just takes one mistake . . .

Yesterday, I wrote that I was not an expert player by any stretch, and though I consider myself above average, I still have a lot to learn and occasionally make really stupid rookie mistakes (which I hopefully learn from and don't repeat.)

Today, I'm going to embarrass the hell out of myself and recount this incredibly stupid thing I did last night, which ended up costing me my tournament life after I'd played a respectable game and was very close to passing the bubble.

I didn't have a ton of time, but I wanted to work on my game, so I hopped into a 2-table $11 SNG. I figured this would give me more useful experience than a single table SNG (which has its own very specific strategy) without involving too much investment in time or money. I've also found that the players at the $11 level, while not the deadly killers you encounter at higher levels, are typically competent players who provide more serious competition than the players at the $5 and $6.50 turbo levels who routinely call all-ins with weak aces. It's not significantly tougher, but it's within my comfort level. Those of you reading this who routinely crush the 10-20 cash games, or 100 MTT SNGs can point and laugh at me now.

Okay, that's enough. Save your energy, because you're going to need it for more mocking later.

I caught a few hands early on, and chipped up a little bit. I gave back some chips on a few steal attempts, but I stayed aggressive and right around average all the way through the first table. I identified which of my opponents were solid, which ones weren't going to fold when I had (or was representing) a big hand, and which ones were easy to push around post-flop. I used that information to play tight/aggressive ABC poker, and didn't get too cute or tricksy.

Sounds good, right? Nice, solid, smart poker, puts myself in a position to make a run, and that is what I should really be doing against competition where I'm pretty sure I have a bit of a skill edge. Note I just said "a bit," because in No Limit Holdem, one stupid mistake, one loss of focus, or one misread can negate all your other great decisions and smart, tough play.

With six players left, I had just under chip average, but thanks to a huge stack of about 11K, four of us were clustered very close to each other. I was fourth in chips, but within a few big blinds of second place. Very close to the break, with blinds at 75/150, I found AJo UTG +1. I had about 2450, so my M was around 10. In this spot, it's probably correct to just fold with four players left to act behind me, but I thought that, with an M of 10, a relatively tight-but-aggressive image, and the blinds about to hit me (and increasing soon, but I wasn't sure how soon, and I didn't check, which we will see was a serious mistake) that I needed to open up and play a few more hands. I opened for a standard raise, which at this point was 450. It was folded to the SB, who called, and the BB folded. There was now 1125 in the pot.

The flop came K-7-x with two clubs, and the SB checked. He was a pretty straightforward, non-tricksy player, so I interpreted his check as weakness, and made a 600 continuation bet. This made the pot 1725, and I had 1400 left. The SB check-raised me all-in, and I had to make a decision for all my chips.

The first thing I had to do was put him on a hand: well, it doesn't matter, because unless he's playing a weaker ace than me and completely missed the flop, I'm behind. If he paired his king, I'm dead to an ace. If he has a pocket pair, I'm racing, but now I'm a serious dog, and if he has a set, I'm drawing nearly dead. So I fold, leaving myself an M of 6. Not good, but still enough to have some folding equity if I can open-push a couple of times, and steal the blinds or double up.

Right. Until the blinds go up on the very next hand, cutting my not-too-great M of 6 into a deadzone M of just under 3. I have to push with KT, I get called by A8, never catch up, and IGHN in 6th place. Hee. Haw.

So let's look at where I made mistakes in this hand (if you haven't spotted them already) so I don't make them again, and hopefully you never make them:

  • The first mistake I made was not knowing when the blinds would be up. When there are less than two minutes left in a level, I start calculating my M based on the next level of blinds. If I'd paid attention and known to calculate my M closer to 5, I'd have open-pushed with my AJo there, or just folded.
  • The second mistake I made was committing myself with a very weak hand by making a continuation bet. Again, I should just check and fold, unless I hit that ace on the turn, and then I can push.
  • The third mistake I made was folding and crippling myself. Though my instincts told me I was beat at the moment, there are still two cards to come, and if I've been so stupid as to put myself into this position, I should just play for all my chips there and hope to get lucky, rather than risking all my chips on KTo with virtually no folding equity.

If I was going to make a play at that pot, after he checks, the right thing to do was push, and even that is pretty stupid, because i'm not going to get called by a hand I can beat.

The only reason I can really support making a move there is the short-handed table, and increasing blinds. If I'm feeling desperate (and I really shouldn't) I should just open-push and hope to steal, or take a race. The other stacks are so close to mine, it's unlikely that I'll be called by a hand I dominate, unless I've gotten incredibly lucky and a player behind me gets a case of the stupids even worse than the one I have.

Ultimately, given the situation in the game at the time, just two off the bubble and with so many of us clustered close together, the right play  was to fold and wait for a better hand. I'm happy to push with AK, or any pair down to 77 there, knowing that the blinds are about to increase, but opening that pot out of position with AJo is about as smart as doing it with the hammer, and I'd rather bust with the hammer than AJo.

Hopefully, this illustrates more than just what a donkey I can be. Hopefully, this illustrates how important it is to stay focused, and consider the blinds, the strategic implications of play near the bubble, and the dangers of the tight/weak/stupid play.

In defense of tight play

There is some great discussion around my last post, and we're talking about the relative merits of taking some chances early on to chip up, or wait for a big hand a little later on, when you may have a good amount of chips, but a an M that hasn't seen the Green Zone since the Lindy Hop was cutting edge and sent parents into a tizzy.

A few hours ago, my  copy of Harrington on Hold'em Volume Three: The Longest Title In The History of Poker Books arrived, and while I worked through the problems (I'm currently getting an "A", thankyouverymuch) I came across the following bit, which supports my instincts to stay tight early on. I've paraphrased it enough to keep stay within fair use guidelines:
You start with 2000 in chips. You fool around a bit at the beginning with loose calls, and your stack drops to 1600. Now you catch a pair of kings, and get all-in with a big stack at your table, who holds queens. Your hand holds up because you weren't playing CJ, and you double up! Bingo! What's the problem? Come on, Chachi! What's the problem? Are you going to cry, Private Pyle?!

You now have 3200. The problem? You would have had 4000 if you hadn't squandered those chips earlier, numbnuts. Your early loose play has, almost invisibly, cost you 800, or about a quarter of your current stack.

Okay, maybe Dan Harrington doesn't talk like R. Lee Ermey from Full Metal Jacket, but you get the point, right? That's from problem one, on page eight. Obviously, Action Dan thinks there's something to playing smart and tight, so you preserve as many chips as possible to maximize your doubling up, as well as your folding equity. It reminds me of a few times when I've been a tourney, and I've "gotten cute" with a hand that I shouldn't have played, and later on when I have a hand that I could use to make a move, or I've been in a position to double up, I really miss those chips that I "cuted" away.

A Friend in Need - Warming Up For the 1K Events

As part of my WSOP warm-up, I've been getting some coaching and strategic guidance from a friend of mine, (who I won't out without his permission, in case I've misinterpreted his advice) who is the best poker player I know who doesn't have a bracelet.

I sought out his help because I deeply respect his game, and I feel like I've gotten as far as I'm going to get on my own studying books, playing games and analyzing my hand histories. To do well in the WSOP, I need to have some sort of strategic plan that takes into account the size of the fields, anticipated level of play, and tournament structure in the various preliminary events I'll enter before the Main Event.

We worked out some strategy for the 1000 and 1500 events, based upon one fact, and one assumption:

  • Fact: All players will start out with relatively small Ms.
  • Assumption: A large portion of the field will lack experience for large-field MTTs, or if they have it, it'll be limited to online MTTs.

Based upon those two factors, we concluded that making it deep in the preliminary events will require an outrageous amount of luck, because it's going to be pushmonkey poker after about level three, if I can't pick up some pots early on. We also concluded that I'm going to have to get used to throwing away a lot of hands that I'd play in a regular tournament, because there just aren't enough chips relative to the blinds to make a lot of moves (unless I triple up early. Yeah.)

To get a sense for the way I'll have to play in the preliminary events, I played some cheap-o Turbo MTTs over the weekend. I chose those tourneys because they're easy on the bankroll, and the blinds go up so fast, I have to practice the same ultra-tight-then-push-and-pray strategy that I'll use in the 1K events, based upon the ratio of stacks to blinds.

It was the weirdest thing in the world to consciously throw away hands I'd normally limp with to see a cheap flop, like suited connectors or one-gappers for a raise at level one, or hands I'd normally try to steal with, because it makes more sense to stay alive and have chips to use folding equity later on when the blinds are higher. For example, if I find a hand down to KT in late position and I'm first to open, I usually come in for a raise. But in one of these tourneys, I'm likely to get called by at least one of the blinds if they're soooooted or have an ace, or connecting cards, or just want to see a flop, and unless I hit my hand, I'm unlikely to push them off even bottom pair. It makes more sense, from a strategic point of view, to let that hand go at level one or two, rather than risk putting extra chips at risk on the steal, and then risk them again after the flop when I'm likely to be up against a fairly wide range of hands.

It seems counter-intuitive, but I'd rather wait until I can risk all my chips on a middle pair, or take a flip with a big ace to double up, than risk lots of chips early on and possibly cripple myself so I really can't get a lot of chips when I have a decent hand (well, better than a weak ace or a weak king.)

I played in the 45 player 6.50 Turbo MTTs at PokerStars, and I used this strategy pretty effectively. I made it to 10th in one of them, and went out in the 20s in another one when A4o paired the 4 and sucked out on my AQd.

If you have a friend whose game you respect, I highly suggest getting together with him or her and talking about your game plan, whether you're playing in a big live tourney, or not. Often, two minds are better than one, especially when it comes to objectively analyzing your game and developing a strategy that works for you.

I actually have an afterthought here, based upon some of your comments: this may not be the best way to approach these events, which is why I'm trying it out right now. One of the fundamental facts that guides this strategerey is how small all the starting Ms are, and how quickly it will become Big Stack Poker; unless and until I chip up, I'm not going to have access to all the bullets in my poker gun. The goal with this approach is to get there.

Obviously, I'm willing to take some hands to war earlier on than I'd normally would because my M will start out at a place where I'd be making those moves later in a tournament. If I chip up early on, and my M gets over 20, then I am, as Harrington says, "a fully functional poker player" and I'll be able to use squeeze plays, steal more blinds, defend my own blinds, and maybe consider some semi-bluffs. But to get to that point, I'm going to have to stay away from draws, leave weak aces alone, and throw away sooooooooted cards that I may play in other circumstances. And of course, this is all dependent upon the texture of my tables and what cards come my way. On day one of the PCA, Greg Raymer took me aside and told me to apply some pressure as soon as I could, because most of the players, as online qualifiers, would be much more passive and tight in a live tourney. Unfortunately for me, I drew both Evlyn Ng and Twin Caracas at my first table, and they made that move long before I could, but the underlying advice is still solid, and is a useful bullet to have in your balanced strategy gun.

Of course, I could be completely wrong, and I'm sure there are other players out there who are smarter and better players than I am, who will help me refine where I've made mistakes with my interpretation of this approach. I don't claim to be an expert, or even a great player, so as I said when I started this series of posts: this is mostly for me to puzzle out my ideas and record insights I stumble upon as I review and prepare for the WSOP. I deeply appreciate all the advice and contrary opinions in comments; you're helping me think, and become a better player.

nice aces, janet

    "It is only a small mistake to fold"
        - Dannenman's List.


There are times in a tournament when you have to take all the information you've picked up in the hand, run it past everything you know about the game and all the experiences you've made, and get away from your big hand. It's one of those plays that you absolutely must have in your arsenal if you're going to make it deep, but it's also one of those plays that can leave you wondering for days if you did the right thing.

In a 180x22 SNG at Poker Stars last night, I decided that I would stay out of trouble for the first hour, pick up pots when I could, but not get too tricksy, precious. There's no point building up an image for these things, because most people don't pay attention, you get moved a lot in the early levels as the lemurs eliminate themselves with weak ace versus sooooooted connectors, and it's just stupid to take too many risks when the value of the chips is still so low.

That strategy to stay nice and tight but aggressive was tested on the very first hand, when I was dealt a pair of queens under the gun. Queens are tricky, because you don't want to entirely discourage action, but still want to thin the field, so your pair holds up after the flop. They're also tricky to play early in a tournament from early position, because lots of players are going to call with a wide range of hands, especially online. I decided to make it 4x the BB (80), instead of the usual 3x I'd make it in later position. The next player folded, and the third player re-raised me to 240. It was folded back to me, and I put this guy on JJ, TT, or AK. He could be a complete lemur and make that move with presto or something, but it's the very first hand of the tournament, I have no information, and I'm out of position for the rest of the hand. I seriously thought about pushing, (I'd push with AA or KK there, for sure) but I really thought I was racing, and thought it was stupid to take a coinflip on the very first hand. So I called, and figured I'd bet the pot if an ace or king didn't come.

When the flop came A-K-little, I was pretty sure I was beat. Now, I had a tough choice: I could make a probe bet, which would leave me with about 800, and ensure that the rest of my money was probably going in on the turn, or I could check and fold if he bet into me. Everything I know about poker was screaming at me that I was beat, so I made a not-too-difficult laydown when he bet behind my check. Was it too tight? Was I a pussy? Maybe. But this is the very first hand of a tournament, and I didn't think it was worth risking my entire tournament on third pair after a re-raise. If he made all those moves with a pair that I could have beaten, then good for him; he used his positional advantage quite nicely.

After my (possibly) good fold, I played nice and tight, seeing flops in position when I could get in on the cheap (and missing) and picking up some pots here and there with continuation bets or well-timed steals. I waded through the tourney and with around 60 players left found myself with an M of about 6, and doubled up when my AK flopped TPGK, and some guy inexplicably called my pot-sized bet on the flop, turn, and shove on the river with a weak king and no draw. Weird.

Then I was tested by the poker gods when the blinds were 75/150 and I caught an incredible little rush of cards. Starting in MP, I picked up pocket tens (stole the blinds), AK (raised two limpers and got them and the blinds to fold), AJ (open-raised and the BB folded) and by the time I was UTG, I'd picked up a few thousand in chips something shitty that I folded in the BB, but holy crap, I played a lot of hands in a short amount of time. When I was UTG, I had pocket aces. In my mind, Vince was going on and on about pocket rockets, and American Airlines, and fireworks going off in my head. This was perfect: I could make a standard raise, and be virtually guaranteed that anyone with a hand was coming over the top of me to play sheriff. A MP player called, a LP player called, and both the blinds called. Well, shit. That's not what I wanted at all.

The flop comes out: 7-8-T with two hearts. I bet the pot, MP calls, and the button  (who has me covered) pushes. The blinds fold back to me, and now I have to think for a second: am I beat? Or is this guy playing sheriff?

It's like I can see his cards: he called with 7-8, hit two pair, and he's shoving to get heads up with me to eliminate the MP player, who may be drawing. What else could he make that move with? A set, for sure, maybe an overpair to the board that's nearly dead to my aces, or maybe he's making a squeeze play! Yeah! Squeeze play!

Against my better judgment, ignoring those instincts I've worked so hard to develop, I call. MP folds, and the button shows pocket sevens for a set. Turn is a blank, and the river pairs the board and fills him up. IGHN, in the mid-50s.

Can you make the laydown there? Especially with aces? Clearly, I couldn't, but as a friend of mine says, "when all the money goes in on the flop like that, top-pair is usually no good."

In favor of calling:
  • Had I folded, my M would have been really, really low (like 4 to 6, I think) so that supports calling his shove when I have a very good pair, rather than folding and hoping to double up in the next orbit.
  • My image was a little wild at that point, and I was hoping someone would stand up to me on this hand . . . I was just hoping they'd stand up to me with a hand I could beat!
  • In order to live, you must be willing to die. If I won that hand, I'd have been one of the chip leaders with a good chance to make the final table where the real money is in these things.
In favor of folding:
  • My instincts just screamed at me that I was beat. People LOVE to play connecting cards in late position after a raise and a call, because they know they'll get stacked when they hit. Even though I was wrong about him having two pair, my read that I was beat was still correct.
  • I've learned that it's really not a good idea to talk yourself into a call when you just know in your gut that you have to fold. There's a difference between making a marginal call, and talking yourself into making a call when you're 90% certain you're dead.
  • But the biggest reason to fold: as clearly as I know I'm typing this on a Powerbook, I knew I was beat. I just couldn't get away from aces.
Of course, poker is a game of incomplete information, and if I'd made that call against KT or AT or JJ, I'd be celebrating how great my "tough call" was, though hindsight tells me that it was, in fact, correct to fold.

And what about the fold on the first hand, now that I'm out nice and far away from the bubble? Wouldn't it just have been better to go out nice and early, instead of investing 90 minutes in a tournament with nothing to show for it?

No. Not at all. It's not about results, it's about decisions.

Warming Up for the WSOP

The World Series of Poker is less than three weeks away, and I'll be playing in a few events under the Team PokerStars flag.

Success in the WSOP, like success in any other sporting event, requires training, practice, and dedication. Over the next three weeks, I'll be spending some time each day reviewing the books I consider essential to tournament poker success, and testing out my large-field tournament strategy at Poker Stars.

For the rest of this month, I'll keep a blog of whatever insights I pick up as I study Harrington on Hold'Em I and II, Tournament Poker For Advanced Players, Phil Gordon's Little Green Book of Poker, and whatever else I come across in my travels. I'll track my experiences playing tourneys at Poker Stars as I "train" for the big dance, and share any insights I pick up (without revealing too many gaping leaks in my game . . . CJ doesn't need any more help taking all my chips, thank you very much.)

I owe a great deal of my tournament success over the last year to my fellow poker bloggers, who have unselfishly shared their wisdom with me, and I hope to give back to the community a little bit in my own way as I walk this path of knowledge from now until the WSOP begins. This should be an interesting and fun experience, and I hope we can all learn some things together over the next few weeks.

Win your way to the WSOP - InterPoker.com

InterPoker.com is running a World Series of Poker promotion that seems, quite frankly, pretty good. Though I haven't looked into what exactly you have to do to win it, the prize package includes a $10,000 entry into the Main Event at this year's WSOP, $3,000 for 15 nights hotel accomodation at the Rio, and $2,000 for travel and spending money. Plus, they will buy your way into Event #40 which is a $1,000 No Limit Hold'em event, as well as an entry into a $200k freeroll at the Gold Coast in Vegas.

Pretty nice prize package. For more details, you can check their website through the 'read' link below.

(image: InterPoker.com)

Countdown to WSOP - 24 days to go

All of a sudden it is June. I'm not really sure where the first half of the year went, but it doesn't really matter since summer is almost here and the 2006 World Series of Poker is about to begin.

With only twenty-four days to go, we are going to be taking an in-depth look at the World Series over the next couple of weeks. Stay tuned for player profiles, WSOP history, news relating to the 2006 events, and whatever else we can come up with.

The countdown is on!

500 FPP WSOP Qualifier at PokerStars this Weekend

Over at the Official PokerStars Blog, Otis has a big honkin' list of events at 'Stars this weekend, including a WSOP qualifier that just costs 500 FPPs to enter:

"To finish off the PokerStars Five Billionth Hand Celebration (congrats, again, MaraJade), PokerStars is throwing a 500 Frequent Player Point buy-in World Series of Poker qualifier. Everybody at the final table will get a PokerStars WSOP package. Everybody else will be playing for $100,000 in cash. This event pays deep, down to 785 players. Registration begins Saturday at noon ET and is limited to the first 5,000 players who sign up. The tournament begins Sunday at 1pm ET."

If you're planning to play in the WSOP this year, whether it's a preliminary event or the Main Event, it's a very good idea to get some massive field tourney practice at an online room like PokerStars, where you can make a small investment ($11, for example) and adjust to playing against thousands of people. With so many online players anticipated to be in the WSOP this year (and probably for the next several years, at least) you're going to face a similar level of play, too, to what you'll find in one of these large field, low buy-in events.

Two more WPBT'ers going to the WSOP

Big congratulations to 'Lucko21' at Poker Cash and 'myradiohead' at Huntsvegas Poker for winning the latest WPBT World Series of Poker satellite entries last night. Ninety-three players competed for the two seats in a tournament that spanned more than seven hours - finally ending at 4am EST.

I was unable to play last night, but watched the action quietly from the wings. It was definitely some of the best poker I have seen played in a long time. The winners will be joining the lovely Gracie (who won her seat in the first WPBT WSOP satellite) in Las Vegas this summer.

This tournament also counted for WPBT POY Leaderboard points, which has been updated by Byron.

Ed. Note: Special thanks to Iggy for setting up these tournaments!

(Chip design: Maudie)

Gracie Wins WPBT WSOP Satellite!

Congrats to Gracie from Sheverb.com. She won the first WPBT WSOP satellite on Paradise Poker this past Sunday. Great job Gracie!


There were 69 poker bloggers who participated. Gracie beat the Surley Poker Gnome heads up to win a seat to any $1,500 WSOP event at the Rio Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas this year. 


Gracie was really sick for the entire tournament too. She played on a head full of NyQuil and still managed to get the victory! 


Last year, the WPBT sent several bloggers to the $1,500 WSOP No Limit Hold'em event. Some of those bloggers included Bobby Bracelet, Joe Speaker, Wes the Big Pirate, and Russell Fox


Thanks to Iggy who busted his butt to set up this event! 

Congrats again to Miss Gracie on her great win!! Gracie rules!!!

Road to the WSOP - Full Tilt Poker

With just over three months to go, most online poker sites are now running satellites and super-satellites for World Series of Poker Main Event seats. Full Tilt Poker started running theirs at the end of February, and have several ways that you can win your way in.

Full Tilt is giving away $1,000,000 worth of free WSOP seats through monthly freerolls. The top twenty finishers in each of these freerolls will win seats to the Main Event in Vegas. (For information on how to qualify for the freerolls, check their website for full details.)

They are also holding a 100-seat guaranteed tournament on July 16th. The event itself is $535 to enter, but satellites are running now if you don't want to pay the full fee. As the name indicates, they will be giving away 100 Main Event seats guaranteed.  

Continue reading Road to the WSOP - Full Tilt Poker

Road to the World Series of Poker

The 2006 World Series of Poker begins in just over three months and the hype can already be felt throughout online poker sites, brick and mortar rooms, and across the Internet. Over the next few months we are going to search for the best satellites and promotions, spotlight professional players, make some predictions, and in general live and breathe the WSOP.

The 2006 schedule looks quite different than it did in past years, which is understandable due to the astronomical fields expected. As Derek wrote back in October, this year's World Series will begin later than normal. Satellites will start running on June 25th, and Event #1 - the Casino Employee No-Limit event - is scheduled for June 26th.

There has been much controversy surrounding the schedule, many players complaining that it is to heavy on Hold'em as Wil discussed last November. See for yourself - prior to the main event, the breakdown of games is as follows:

Hold'em Events:

  • 9 events: No-Limit Hold'em
  • 2 events: No-Limit Hold'em with re-buys
  • 3 events: No-Limit Hold'em Short handed (6 players per table)
  • 1 event: No-Limit Hold'em Shootout
  • 4 events: Pot-Limit Hold'em
  • 4 events: Limit Hold'em
  • 1 Limit Hold'em Shootout event
  • 1 Casino Employee No-Limit Hold'em event
  • 1 Ladies-only No-Limit Hold'em event
  • 1 Seniors-only No-Limit Hold'em event
  • 1 Media / Celebrity No-Limit Hold'em event

Non-Hold'em:

  • 3 events: Omaha Hi-Low Split
  • 2 events: Pot Limit Omaha
  • 2 events: Seven Card Stud
  • 1 event: No-Limit 2-7 Draw Lowball with rebuys
  • 1 Seven Card Razz event
  • 1 Seven Card Hi Low Split event
  • 1 event: H.O.R.S.E. (with a $50,000 buy-in)

The 2006 Main Event will have four Day-1 flights this year, as opposed to last year's three. Also, fourteen days are scheduled to run this year's entire Main Event, whereas last year they had scheduled ten.

In any case, it is going to be a phenomenal, record-breaking event, and I for one can't wait until it begins. For the entire 2006 WSOP schedule, click on the 'read' link below.

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