Greetings and happy holidays from me to everyone out there in Cardsquad land. So I'm getting back into the swing of things after a couple of weeks at home with my family, and although I can honestly say the past few weeks were among the best times I've ever had since our first child entered the world a little more than three years ago, I'm also looking forward a bit to the rigidity of a daily work schedule, and the regular nightly poker sessions that go along with that schedule. And speaking of poker, don't worry from the content of this post -- I have never willingly and was not for this What's He Holding? post playing in a limit holdem tournament. I am growing to enjoy limit holdem in general as I've read and practiced it more and more, but not to the point of actually ponying up my hard-earned cash to play in a limit holdem-only event. No, in this case, the hand I'm going to look at today is from the limit holdem portion of the weekly 30k guaranteed HORSE tournament on full tilt, which I am thrilled to say I managed to win this past Sunday night on New Years Eve, to the tune of nearly $5,000 in cash money. I've got a full writeup of the occasion on my blog, so go check it out if you're interested in reading more about this, my third major online tournament victory in the last year, and my first to start off 2007 with a major bang.
So today's What's He Holding? post occured fairly deep into last Sunday's 30k HORSE tournament, with blinds already up at 300-600, and with my stack sitting at just over 7000, which was just above the average stack size at the time. I look down UTG and find A8o. Normally, this is definitely a folding hand from UTG, especially in no-limit holdem where you can really get burned by playing a dominatable hand like this. But in limit, unlike no-limit, I am much more confident that I can make money if I do have the best hand, and let this thing go early if my read says I am behind, without losing major chips in any case. And, with the blinds really increasing and with me drifting back towards average after an early run, I was feeling the desire to get back involved in the game.
So, I decided I would take a stab here from UTG, knowing I will fold to any raise. But if I'm gonna play a hand like A8o from UTG, limping in is just asking for trouble, so I raised it up instead. Only the player 2 seats to my left called the bet, leaving me heads up to see a flop of 226 rainbow. I elected to check the flop and see what this guy was going to do. He bet out, 300 chips into the 2250 chip pot.
What hand or range of hands should I put this player on right now? How do his preflop actions mesh with his bet now on the flop? What would you suggest I do in response to his lead bet on this raggy, paired flop?
I'll be back tomorrow with my own analysis, discussion of your comments, and the follow-up post to this hand. Please provide your comments as to how to formulate an early read on puyop's likely holding based on what we know so far.
What's He Holding?
Reader Comments
(Page 1)2. Well, the bet could indicate a pocket pair, it could also indicate a couple of overcards, quite possibly an ace + better kicker. I'd put him on 77-AA, and A10-AK. That might be a little loose, but I tend to think that in LHE people are more willing to call raises with mediocre hands. He could also have something like KQ or maybe even KJ, and is just trying to push you off the hand, but I think he'd be more inclined to bet out on a missed flop with an ace. I'd either fold or raise, depending on how much I felt like he was just testing the waters. I guess if we're going crazy with A8o, why not raise it up?
Posted at 9:57AM on Jan 3rd 2007 by Mike Maloney
3. I would put him on an overpair.
It would justify his cold call preflop and certianly his bet on the flop. Unless you have a high pocket pair (unlikely with the check on the flop) or are slow playing sixes, he's not too worried. I'm sure he has you on a big ace.
If he had AA-QQ, I would expect a reraise preflop (slowplaying those hands pre-flop is a big no-no in limit), so he could be on JJ-77, I would say.
It's also entirely possible that he's got a big ace himself and is taking a stab at the pot because you checked and might put him on a overpair.
I agree with Mike. You should either fold or raise. If he's got a big ace, he might lay it down, thinking you'd hit a set, or if you get reraise you can run away with your tail between your legs.
Posted at 11:05AM on Jan 3rd 2007 by Kevin Ring
4. Happy New Year Hoy! Way to kick things off with a fat win! As usual, you are setting a high bar amongst the blogosphere. Now that the obligatory BS is out of the way...
His stack is just below average...how has he been playing? If he's been pretty tight, I put him on a medium pair (33-88, except 66), a medium-strong ace (A8-AJ), wired paint (KQ, QJ) or a s000ted or connected 6 (67s, A6s, etc.). Any pair stronger than 33-88 would have likely caused him to reraise you preflop, as would AQ or AK. If he's been somewhat loose, add anything s000ted that included the 6 or any two cards that gave him a backdoor str8 or flush draw (34, etc.), but I'll stick with the medium pair, medium-strong ace, 2 faces, or s00ted/connected 6.
5. I'm thinking medium pocket pair or some suited connectors. I wouldn't think he has a monster hand or he would have reraised. He could be trying to represent a specific range of hands with his raise. It would be nice to have a read on the guys previous play to narrow his holdings. He's trying to gain information from you with his bet.
I'm thinking he has 99s or 10s.
Posted at 12:36PM on Jan 3rd 2007 by The Poker Enthusiast
6. his range is 22-AA, AJ+, KQ, 10-9S+ or something like that. Not a good idea to put him on a drawing hand calling an UTG raise late in a tourney. You are probably stone-cold bluffing out of position if you raise here, so your action depends on what you think your image is in his eyes. the pot's big enough that he's probably going to call you down with at least 1/2 his range even on a check raise. I fold here, though its probably not what you did. If I was thinking its time for a bluff, I would probably lead out on the flop.
Posted at 1:09PM on Jan 3rd 2007 by SR
7. I would put him on a hand like A9 offsuit or high connectors such as KQ or QJ. If he had a strong ace (AK or AQ) he would probably have reraised preflop. If he had an over pair like 10's or J's he would have bet more than what he did on the flop just to get you out of the hand in case you have overcards. I think there is also the possibility that he has 66 but unlikely. If he hit big on the flop with the full house he probably should check so you can hit a hand but he may be thinking "hmmm. if I put in a small bet, he might call hoping to hit a card with good pot odds and I can draw more money into the pot. yeah that's what I'll do." In any case, you don't have anything, it's time to fold.
Posted at 11:44PM on Jan 3rd 2007 by N8SK8S
1. I'm wondering how you raised it up 3x in a HORSE tournament, where all of the games are limit, and when your screen shows a limit style minimum raise. Or has Full Tilt changed it so that the Hold'Em portion is No Limit now and you're showing a false screen?
Posted at 8:57PM on Jan 2nd 2007 by Adam B.