OK so if you've been following along with the first three parts to this post, you know that we're playing $1-$2 no-limit holdem cash on full tilt, I flopped a set with pocket 3s, bet half the pot on the flop and got two callers, and then checked the turn card, the King♥, in the hopes of inducing a bet from someone who is behind my set. In the last post I asked what you would do in the situation at left, where my turn check was met with a $10 bet and a call of that bet across the felt. Interestingly, one thing a few of the commenters seemed to key on was losing this hand to someone who is drawing here, and the need therefore to bet fairly strongly here, at least enough to price out any drawing hands. Now, if you know me and you know my play, then you know I'm not one to give many free cards in any circumstances, but in this case I did not feel the urgency that some of the commenters did in this case, because of the texture of the flop itself.

In this hand, the flop came T53 rainbow. Even though the turn card brought a King of hearts, to go along with the Ten of hearts already on the flop, try as I might I just could not get myself scared by that card on the turn. Of course someone could be drawing now, and I would not want to give away a free card to that person under any circumstances given how big the pot has already become. But, this isn't Omaha, where I would really want to bet out here to protect my hand since everyone has so many holecards that basically anyone could easily have backed into a drawing hand here on the turn. And that's exactly why I wasn't scared about protecting against drawing hands here -- with only two players in, and only two holecards per player in holdem, I found the odds to be exceedingly low that anyone was drawing here. Who exactly am I afraid of holding exactly QJ, who called a half-pot bet on the flop? I can't see it. And the same thing with two random hearts. Who called the halfpot bet on the flop, with three players in no less, with just two random hearts in their hand? I'm just not buying it.

And that's why I just smooth called the $10 turn bet here. I figured the odds of someone drawing at anything were very small, since they would have had to totally back into any draw with the lucky turn card. And, even if they did have a draw, my set is still a favorite to win with only one card to come (any straight or flush draw will have only a roughly 20% chance of filling on the river against my made hand), and on top of that, I have a 10-out redraw to at least a boat (any Ten, Five, King or the case Three will do it for me). I was still hoping that someone maybe had a King and would be willing to put in some more of their stack on the river, depending on what falls.

A second later the river fell: The King♠. So, there would be no flush on this hand, and no straight either. And now, I've made a boat, 3s full of Kings. Action is to me on the river, with $67 now in the pot with all the cards on the board.

What would you recommend now? Am I leading out with my hand that beats anything other than KK, TT, 55, KT, K5 or K3? Have either of my opponents played this like they are holding one of those hands? How much would you bet here? Or, are you more scared of the second King on the river, and now want to just check it down and see a cheap showdown? Am I even looking at this point to make the most from this hand, or rather just to lose the least? What's the best move here?