I'm back today for the third installment in my latest Hot Hand post, where I cover a hand that saw me take a cheapo flop with pocket 3s and then flop a set on a raggy board of T53 rainbow. In Part I, I asked how you would suggest I play on the flop after nailing my set. Most commenters agreed with what I eventually did on that flop, which was to bet out a smallish amount and hope to achieve both of my main goals at this point in the hand: (1) get some money into the pot, while (2) still appearing weak to my opponents in the hopes that they will pay me off better later in the hand. After betting half the pot on the flop, both of my opponents called my weakish bet, and then the turn card brought a King, arguably a good card as many commenters to Part II of this post pointed out since it is likely to make somebody something decent at that point in the hand. In Part II, I asked the readers how they would suggest playing the turn card, having bet small on the flop and found two callers across the felt from me.
Again, most of the commenters seemed to take a similar approach to the one I actually took in this hand. The general thinking here is, I have set this hand up so far as if I am weak weak weak, and, since I am actually very strong in reality, it makes good sense for me to continue to project a weak image in order to get my opponents to make a serious move at what is now a $38 pot heading into the King♥ on the turn. I agree with this approach 100%. Barring pure bluffs, which are few and far between for me, two things need to happen most of the time I make a big hand in a no-limit holdem cash game: #1, I need to make a big hand, and #2, I need someone to be willing to put a pile of chips into the pot against my strong made hand. Here' #1 already happened for me on the flop, and for #2, I'm staring in the face the likelihood that my opponents will put me on nothing good if I play my cards right here (pun intended). And I was not about to let this opportunity slip away.
I straight-up checked it on the turn. Here I am really going for the gold and trying to get deep into my opponents' heads, using Level 3 thinking. I know I have a good hand (Level 1). I have no reason to believe either opponent is anywhere near as strong as I am in the hand (Level 2). Level 3 kicks in where I try to figure what my opponents think I am holding. And when I check this turn card to them, I am screaming indicating to them that I took a stab with an inferior hand on the flop, found not just one but two callers, and am now shutting down for good. Any self-respecting nlh cash player will have to bet at me now on this round, and I had no doubt that would work here as well.
And it did work, as the first opponent to my left bet out $10 into the $38 pot. This was a weakass bet, one that I could only assume he expected to get called with, and he did in fact get called by my other opponent as well. I think this was a very transparent bet my the turn bettor here, as a bet of 1/4 the pot almost screams out that he has a decently strong hand at this point, and that he's not worried about letting anyone get a free card on the river. I supposed at the time that it could have been just a flush draw that this guy picked up on the turn with two hearts in his hand, but most likely I figured he was on some sort of decent King, and felt fairly sure he was in front here.
So, what do you suggest now? I've got a bettor and a caller of a $10 bet to me, into what is now a $58 pot. I still have to feel fairly certain I am ahead here, as there is no way that the King♥ is scaring me into thinking my trip 3s are now somehow behind. I suppose someone with pocket 5s was possible, but highly unlikely, and I discounted pocket 10s or pocket Kings because of the lack of a preflop raise in the hand. So my 3s were almost surely still best. Would you raise it here and try to either take it down now, or get some more money into the pot? Or do you call here and take your chances with the river card? How are you going to get the most of your opponents' money into the middle here, while still adequately protecting your hand?
Hot Hand -- Flopping a Set in NLH Cash Game (Part III)
Reader Comments
(Page 1)2. I like a raise here. $60 sounds about right. Your hand is almost assuredly ahead here, but there are now flush and straight draws to worry about. You don't want people sticking around for cheap trying to draw to a monster. Also, if someone is drawing, and they don't hit on the river, you aren't going to be able to get any money from them in the last round of betting. At least here you have the potential to pick up some more of your opponent's stack with one more card to come. Hopefully the guy to your left has a king, in which case he should call your raise, and he might do it with a draw, too.
Posted at 10:03AM on Dec 11th 2006 by Mike Maloney
3. I used this strategy last night in a live tournament. Flopped an 8 with two 8's in the pocket. I didn't be the flop though, I checked it all the way to the river then went all-in (it was pretty late in the tourney and I wanted him to think I only caught a small part of the board). He called and doubled me up..
Posted at 3:02PM on Dec 11th 2006 by Jason
4. I know you like to go for maximum cash out of the hands you get in, but I've had too many sets crushed by river flushes. Besides, you've also got draw to a straight, either 9-K or Broadway, and somebody playing AQ, AJ, or even QJ s0000ted could fit with the action you've seen so far. I'm with Matt...reraise and see if you can take it down right now. There are too many cards that could hurt you: seven hearts (3, K, T, and two random ones in an opponent's hand are in play, and the 5 will give you a boat), 4 aces could go to broadway, 4 queens, jacks, and 9s also go to a straight, and somebody could be on a KT s000ted, and a K or T would give them a bigger boat. Reraise and try to take it right now.








1. I would raise it up to about $60 here. The guy to your left is pretty much pot committed and will most likely call, but I'd rather not have two opponents seeing the river here if it can be avoided.
Posted at 9:44PM on Dec 9th 2006 by kaellinn18