If you recall, in Part I of this post I detailed a hand the early stages of a limit Omaha hilo tournament among some bloggers on full tilt. Long story short, I flopped the nut flush draw on a 55Q flop, so with very little likelihood of a low hand being made on the hand. The sb checked, I checked behind, and then Dr. Pauly on the button bet out. Maigrey in the sb then proceeded to check-raise, leaving me with a decision of cold calling the 80-chip bet, raising, or folding and waiting for a better situation. This is the question I put to you earlier in the week in Part I of this post.
I have to admit, I was and am very surprised at the amount of commenters who said I should just fold here. I like the reasoning to some degree -- I have very little invested in this pot so far, and with the pair on the flop, I could easily be drawing dead to a made full house, or at least up against someone with trips who is drawing at a boat to beat any flush I could make. Several commenters remind me of my own advice from an earlier article of mine here, that Omaha is a game of the nuts, and with my best likely hand being a nut flush that can still lose to any number of full houses with a pair on the flop, I should just fold and get out for nothing while I still can.
That is decent advice. But it's not what I did. Personally, I was not happy about the check-raise from Maigrey, a known excellent player of all the poker variations, and I wasn't happy about Pauly (another great multi-game player) betting out when it was double-checked to him on the flop as well. But, I just don't see how folding the nut flush draw every time a pair flops is the right move. Given that the pair on the board is low, I would still expect the vast majority of Omaha high pots to be won by flushes (or worse), so in my view I have a good draw at the winning hand. Given all this, I went ahead and made the smooth call, hoping to hit my flush on the turn and then find out where I'm really at. But make no mistake here, all things being equal the odds of one of my opponents holding two Queens or a five and a Queen are exceedingly low, regardless of who or how checkraised me on this hand.
The turn brought an unhelpful (for me) King♠. Before I could say "dammit", Maigrey had led out at me for 80 chips. With her checkraise on the flop, and now the lead-out bet on the seemingly harmless turn card, I put her squarely on trips here. Trips, which my flush draw would beat if I could hit it on the river. Now, I know the odds of me making that flush with one card to come are around 19%, just under 1 in 5. In the pot, I needed to call 80 chips to win a pot of 560 chips, giving me more than enough pot odds to stay in for one more round, and that's not even counting the implied odds considerations since Maigrey likely has trips, and maybe one of them has a non-nut flush draw that could really pay me off if one more club falls on the river. So I made that call for 80 chips as well, hoping for a friendly river club that would take me to big-pot land early on in this tournament.
Before I got to see my hopefully friendly river card, however, another wrench was thrown into my plans. Dr. Pauly raised it up to 160 chips. Maigrey smooth called Pauly's raise, and action was to me.
Uh oh. Now what? I'm now looking at calling another 80 chips to win a pot of 880, laying me 11-to-1 for my 4-to-1 shot at the nut flush. So clearly I've got the odds, as long as I'm not drawing dead to a boat. I understand most of you believe I should have folded on the flop here, but what's the right move now? Is this a clear fold, despite the slamming pot odds I'm getting to draw at my nut flush? Or is someone definitely boated up and trying to extract maximum value here? Could I be up against a King- or Queen-high flush draw who might pay me big time if I hit it on the river? What's the best play here, and why?
I'll be back on Friday with the conclusion to this post, including discussion of today's comments as well as what actually happened and what everyone was holding in their respective hands. Until then, please comment and let me know your thoughts on where the hand has gone thus far.
Hot Hand #2 -- Part II
Reader Comments
(Page 1)2. As soon as you wrote, "I made the smooth call" I said, "Pauly's going to raise." out loud.
The reason I folded this hand is because of exactly what happened. If you were up against one opponent on the flop, I can see continuing. But, you're sandwiched between two people. Now, you're up against a set and a whatever Pauly has which has to be a pretty big draw. Since Pauly raised after the king arrived, and both of you called, I'm thinking he just hit his boat of Kings over fives. I'm folding.
Posted at 9:26AM on Dec 1st 2006 by Pokerwolf
3. Finally....yeesh.
While I seemed to be the only one who advocated playing this hand at all, I now see that its time to go. You're done. You are about to get whip-sawed in a bad, bad way.
Playing the hand after the flop I still think was a good idea because of the flush and backdoor low draws..however, merely calling was problematic.
Now, u have no low draw and have played the hand virtually face up...i.e. clearly drawing to the flush. So why would heather price you in here? Because she wants u to get there. Fold now and let Pauly worry about the river.
Posted at 9:54AM on Dec 1st 2006 by jeciimd
4. Heather didn't price him in; this is limit not pot limit.
I agree with the first post that your pot odds are way to good to just let go here. You've already called one bet at this level, so there's no point folding now when you're guaranteed to see the river (last to act). You've also picked up a gutshot draw to the nut straight, not that this really helps you if you're already drawing dead, but you're pretty much committed to at least seeing the river card.
Posted at 11:43AM on Dec 1st 2006 by kaellinn18
5. My main comment is LOL. ;-) I'm not trying to be a jerj, but your math analysis here is screwed up. You are first of all counting on implied odds, when actually you EASILY could be giving reverse implied odds. Remember, if someone has trips (which is almost 100% guaranteed now), there's almost no way that you have your 8 flush outs (yes 8, not 9; did you forget about the extra club poisoning you in your hand? Yet another flaw with this hand). So to think your are 5-1 PLUS implied odds is really not very good; you are also counting on getting action from the non-nut flush draw. Guess what? There go at least 2 more of your outs in that case! Plus when facing the initial bet, you TOTALLY discounted the fact that it may cost you MORE than 80 chips to see the river, like it indeed did.
The K did help you a little as if you are not drawing dead, it gave you 3 more outs (assuming they are all clean). Sadly, given that you put yourself into this siutation, at limit, I agree you need to grit your teeth and call since it closes the action. The good news is, it's almost impossible for you to get whip-sawed on the river, because everyone needs to fear the nut boat, so it SHOULD only cost you one more bet on the river if you hit. Isn't that nice? Being glad if you make your hand you only have to *worry* about calling one more bet.
1. I guess if you're already this far along you might as well call on the small chance a nut flush could actually still be the best hand. You're probably drawing dead, but I guess with the pot odds I'd probably be curious enough to call and see the river.
Posted at 8:48AM on Dec 1st 2006 by Mike Maloney